Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers

Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-118.1%0-29.9%0-33.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.6%1-112.7%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.1%2-14.5%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 33.9% 2.95 -13.8%

Draw 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Away win 42.8% 40.0% 2.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 39.6% 42.6% 2.35 -6.9%

Over 3.5 19.6% 22.2% 4.50 -7.1%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.2% 37.0% 2.70 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 43% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–0 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.7

Pohang Steelers1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.00

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.89

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 26.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.8%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Pohang Steelers (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 26% chance, the draw 31% and Pohang Steelers 43%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Jeju Utd and 1.1 for Pohang Steelers (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions