Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers

Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-118.1%0-29.9%0-33.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.6%1-112.7%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.1%2-14.5%2-22.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 33.9% 2.95 -13.8%

Draw 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Away win 42.8% 40.0% 2.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 39.6% 42.6% 2.35 -6.9%

Over 3.5 19.6% 22.2% 4.50 -7.1%

BTTS 48.5% 51.8% 1.93 -6.4%

Home O1.5 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.2% 37.0% 2.70 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 89%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 43% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 0–1 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–0 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju Utd0.7

Pohang Steelers1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.00

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.89

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jeju Utd (H) 26.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.8%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Pohang Steelers (A) 42.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju Utd face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju Utd a 26% chance, the draw 31% and Pohang Steelers 43%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Jeju Utd and 1.1 for Pohang Steelers (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%.

Jeju Utd vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions