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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Bucheon FC

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-114.6%0-27.6%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.0%2-16.2%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 50.0% 2.00 -33.0%

Draw 30.7% 30.8% 3.25 -0.2%

Away win 35.8% 26.7% 3.75 +34.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 48.4% 52.6% 1.90 -8.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 45.5% 2.20 -26.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 28.6% 3.50 +24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.6%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu0.9

Bucheon FC1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.63

BUCHEON FC · PPG 1.38

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu (H) 33.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -33.0%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -0.2%

Bucheon FC (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Bucheon FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 34% chance, the draw 31% and Bucheon FC 36%, so Bucheon FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 1.0 for Bucheon FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.38 for Bucheon FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Gimcheon Sangmu vs Bucheon FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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