Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk

Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 10:30

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jeonbuk

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-113.7%0-29.2%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.5%2-16.0%2-24.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 31.3% 3.20 -0.5%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 41.9% 43.5% 2.30 -3.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 44.4% 2.25 +12.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 23.8% 4.20 +13.1%

BTTS 52.4% 52.6% 1.90 -0.4%

Home O1.5 33.6% 31.3% 3.20 +7.5%

Away O1.5 38.5% 40.8% 2.45 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.4%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 13.7%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon Utd0.9

Jeonbuk1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.00

JEONBUK · PPG 1.56

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.56) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Incheon Utd (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Jeonbuk (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon Utd face Jeonbuk in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon Utd a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Jeonbuk 42%, so Jeonbuk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Incheon Utd and 1.3 for Jeonbuk (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.56 for Jeonbuk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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