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Gwangju vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-115.7%0-214.6%0-39.1%0-4+6.5%1 1-05.1%1-19.6%1-28.9%1-35.6%1-4+4.0%2 2-01.6%2-12.9%2-22.7%2-31.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.6% 14.3% 7.00 -2.9%

Draw 22.9% 27.8% 3.60 -10.5%

Away win 63.4% 64.5% 1.55 -1.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 44.4% 2.25 +12.3%

Over 3.5 29.2% 23.8% 4.20 +13.6%

BTTS 48.4% 45.5% 2.20 +6.5%

Home O1.5 33.3% 18.2% 5.50 +83.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 35%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.4%

A 63% / xG 0.6-1.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.6%

#2 0–1 15.7%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 0–3✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju0.6

Pohang Steelers1.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU · PPG 0.75

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju (H) 13.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.5%

Pohang Steelers (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Pohang Steelers 63%, so Pohang Steelers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju and 1.9 for Pohang Steelers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +83.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Gwangju vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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