Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / S George Saints vs Rockdale

S George Saints vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 08:30

S George Saints

PPG 0.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rockdale

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-110.8%0-28.8%0-34.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.8%2-16.3%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 48.1% 59.5% 1.68 -19.2%

Over 2.5 54.1% 61.7% 1.62 -12.4%

Over 3.5 33.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 35.6% 35.7% 2.80 -0.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S George Saints1.1

Rockdale1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.90

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.67

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.90)

Win probability 1X2

S George Saints (H) 26.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.6%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Rockdale (A) 48.1%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

S George Saints face Rockdale in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S George Saints a 26% chance, the draw 26% and Rockdale 48%, so Rockdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for S George Saints and 1.6 for Rockdale (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S George Saints are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.67 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%.

S George Saints vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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