Today / Australia - NPL New South Wales / Sydney Utd vs Rockdale

Sydney Utd vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 04:30

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rockdale

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.8%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.1%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Draw 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

Away win 27.4% 34.5% 2.90 -12.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

BTTS 48.4% 60.6% 1.65 -20.1%

Home O1.5 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Away O1.5 23.7% 42.0% 2.38 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 46% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney Utd1.5

Rockdale0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.27

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.82)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney Utd (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

Rockdale (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney Utd face Rockdale in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney Utd a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Rockdale 27%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sydney Utd and 0.9 for Rockdale (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney Utd are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.82 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.1%.

Sydney Utd vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL New South Wales Predictions