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Sydney FC B vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 09:30

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Manly Utd

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.3%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.3%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 40.0% 2.50 +16.5%

Draw 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -8.5%

Away win 27.9% 40.0% 2.50 -18.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.9% 2.95 -2.1%

BTTS 55.5% 62.5% 1.60 -11.2%

Home O1.5 46.0% 45.5% 2.20 +1.2%

Away O1.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 103 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC B1.5

Manly Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.67

MANLY UTD · PPG 0.73

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=46.6%

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC B (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.5%

Manly Utd (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC B face Manly Utd in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC B a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Manly Utd 28%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sydney FC B and 1.0 for Manly Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC B are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.73 for Manly Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Sydney FC B vs Manly Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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