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Marconi S. vs WS Wanderers B Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

WS Wanderers B

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.0%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-19.9%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.7%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.3%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

Draw 22.3% 22.7% 4.40 -1.1%

Away win 23.7% 15.4% 6.50 +32.4%

Over 2.5 61.7% 64.5% 1.55 -4.4%

Over 3.5 39.9% 42.0% 2.38 -5.0%

BTTS 58.4% 58.8% 1.70 -0.7%

Home O1.5 55.1% 70.4% 1.42 -21.8%

Away O1.5 31.2% 27.4% 3.65 +13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.0

WS Wanderers B1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.60

WS WANDERERS B · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.60) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.1%

WS Wanderers B (A) 23.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face WS Wanderers B in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 54% chance, the draw 22% and WS Wanderers B 24%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marconi S. and 1.0 for WS Wanderers B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.80 for WS Wanderers B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.4%.

Marconi S. vs WS Wanderers B Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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