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Manly Utd vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Manly Utd

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-111.6%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 41.7% 2.40 -11.4%

Draw 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

Away win 35.5% 39.2% 2.55 -9.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Over 3.5 29.2% 33.9% 2.95 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 62.5% 1.60 -15.0%

Home O1.5 35.9% 46.5% 2.15 -22.8%

Away O1.5 37.0% 44.4% 2.25 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 95 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 11.6%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd1.1

Sutherland S.1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.73

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -11.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.7%

Sutherland S. (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face Sutherland S. in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Sutherland S. 36%, so Manly Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Manly Utd and 1.2 for Sutherland S. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.67 for Sutherland S..

Manly Utd vs Sutherland S. Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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