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Wollongong W. vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 08:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

SD Raiders

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.4%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.5%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 46.5% 2.15 +4.7%

Draw 24.5% 29.0% 3.45 -9.3%

Away win 26.8% 34.7% 2.88 -13.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 60.6% 1.65 -10.7%

Over 3.5 33.8% 38.5% 2.60 -12.1%

BTTS 55.5% 66.7% 1.50 -16.8%

Home O1.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -14.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.6

SD Raiders1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.50

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.10)

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.3%

SD Raiders (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face SD Raiders in Australia - NPL New South Wales on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 49% chance, the draw 25% and SD Raiders 27%, so Wollongong W. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Wollongong W. and 1.1 for SD Raiders (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.10 for SD Raiders. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Wollongong W. vs SD Raiders Prediction— Australia - NPL New South Wales

Match Preview & Prediction

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