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Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 02:30

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Monterey Bay

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-16.5%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-111.2%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.5%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 52.4% 1.91 -0.1%

Draw 24.5% 28.2% 3.55 -7.8%

Away win 23.1% 29.9% 3.35 -13.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 30.8% 38.5% 2.60 -19.9%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 40.8% 2.45 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.7

Monterey Bay0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.29

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -0.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.8%

Monterey Bay (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Monterey Bay in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Monterey Bay 23%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Phoenix Rising and 0.9 for Monterey Bay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.29 for Monterey Bay. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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