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Loudoun Utd vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 23:00

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-112.6%0-211.7%0-37.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.4%2-14.4%2-24.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.1% 19.6% 5.10 +7.6%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 55.8% 65.4% 1.53 -14.6%

Over 2.5 54.1% 64.5% 1.55 -16.1%

Over 3.5 33.2% 42.0% 2.38 -21.0%

BTTS 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 67.6% 1.48 -25.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob52.6%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.7%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun Utd0.8

Tampa Bay1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.75

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.43

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun Utd (H) 22.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +7.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

Tampa Bay (A) 55.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun Utd face Tampa Bay in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun Utd a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Tampa Bay 56%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Loudoun Utd and 1.8 for Tampa Bay (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.43 for Tampa Bay. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Loudoun Utd vs Tampa Bay Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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