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Rhode Island vs Hartford A. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hartford A.

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.4%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.7%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 57.1% 1.75 -15.5%

Draw 28.1% 28.2% 3.55 -0.1%

Away win 23.6% 24.4% 4.10 -1.9%

Over 2.5 46.9% 54.1% 1.85 -13.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

BTTS 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Home O1.5 39.5% 55.6% 1.80 -28.9%

Away O1.5 22.1% 30.3% 3.30 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island1.2

Hartford A.0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.43

HARTFORD A. · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -15.5%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -0.1%

Hartford A. (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Hartford A. in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Hartford A. 24%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rhode Island and 0.8 for Hartford A. (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for Hartford A..

Rhode Island vs Hartford A. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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