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Detroit City vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 23:00

Detroit City

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Indy Eleven

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-111.9%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 56.5% 1.77 -3.2%

Draw 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Away win 20.1% 24.4% 4.10 -10.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

Over 3.5 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 46.0% 54.1% 1.85 -14.9%

Away O1.5 21.6% 29.9% 3.35 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 11.7%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City1.5

Indy Eleven0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 2.67

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -3.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Indy Eleven (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Indy Eleven in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Indy Eleven 20%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Detroit City and 0.8 for Indy Eleven (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Indy Eleven.

Detroit City vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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