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Lexington vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

New Mexico

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-19.2%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.6%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.9%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 59.9% 1.67 -17.0%

Draw 26.9% 27.4% 3.65 -1.1%

Away win 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.7%

BTTS 48.5% 58.8% 1.70 -17.5%

Home O1.5 41.1% 58.8% 1.70 -30.1%

Away O1.5 22.1% 30.8% 3.25 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.4

New Mexico0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.67

NEW MEXICO · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -17.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -1.1%

New Mexico (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face New Mexico in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 50% chance, the draw 27% and New Mexico 23%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lexington and 0.8 for New Mexico (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.17 for New Mexico. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Lexington vs New Mexico Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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