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Sporting JAX vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.63 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brooklyn FC

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.4%0-23.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.6%1-17.1%1-27.1%1-34.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.6%3-15.1%3-25.0%3-33.3%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.2%4+-24.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 36.4% 2.75 +22.4%

Draw 21.6% 28.6% 3.50 -14.6%

Away win 34.0% 44.4% 2.25 -23.5%

Over 2.5 67.1% 60.6% 1.65 +10.7%

Over 3.5 48.9% 38.5% 2.60 +27.1%

BTTS 69.3% 66.7% 1.50 +4.0%

Home O1.5 62.9% 46.5% 2.15 +35.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.3%

H 44% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX2.1

Brooklyn FC2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.63

BROOKLYN FC · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +22.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.6%

Brooklyn FC (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Brooklyn FC in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Brooklyn FC 34%, so Sporting JAX are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sporting JAX and 2.0 for Brooklyn FC (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.71 for Brooklyn FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.0%.

Sporting JAX vs Brooklyn FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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