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San Antonio vs Las Vegas L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 19, 2026, 01:00

San Antonio

PPG 2.14 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Las Vegas L.

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.4%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.4%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-16.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Draw 22.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.9%

Away win 23.4% 25.3% 3.95 -4.5%

Over 2.5 62.2% 54.1% 1.85 +15.1%

Over 3.5 40.1% 31.3% 3.20 +28.3%

BTTS 59.4% 57.8% 1.73 +2.8%

Home O1.5 62.9% 54.1% 1.85 +16.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 32.3% 3.10 +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.4%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Antonio2.1

Las Vegas L.1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 2.14

LAS VEGAS L. · PPG 0.57

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs P(Home)=54.5%

Win probability 1X2

San Antonio (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.9%

Las Vegas L. (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Antonio face Las Vegas L. in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, July 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Antonio a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Las Vegas L. 23%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Antonio and 1.1 for Las Vegas L. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Antonio are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 0.57 for Las Vegas L.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-2.

San Antonio vs Las Vegas L. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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