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Pittsburgh vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Pittsburgh

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Louisville City

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.4%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.8%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 32.3% 3.10 +24.3%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

Over 2.5 53.3% 51.3% 1.95 +3.9%

Over 3.5 33.2% 29.0% 3.45 +14.5%

BTTS 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 36.4% 2.75 +26.2%

Away O1.5 37.7% 46.5% 2.15 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.5%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh1.4

Louisville City1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH · PPG 2.00

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh (H) 40.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +24.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Louisville City (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Louisville City 35%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pittsburgh and 1.3 for Louisville City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Pittsburgh vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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