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Miami FC vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Indy Eleven

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-110.0%0-26.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.2%1-112.5%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 36.4% 2.75 +1.5%

Draw 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Away win 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 29.0% 33.9% 2.95 -8.7%

BTTS 53.7% 62.5% 1.60 -14.1%

Home O1.5 40.3% 42.6% 2.35 -5.3%

Away O1.5 39.0% 48.8% 2.05 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.7%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.3

Indy Eleven1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.57

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=36.9%

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +1.5%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Indy Eleven (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Indy Eleven in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Indy Eleven 36%, so Miami FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Miami FC and 1.4 for Indy Eleven (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.40 for Indy Eleven. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.5%.

Miami FC vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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