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Charleston vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 23:30

Charleston

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sacramento R.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.9%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-110.8%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.0%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 55.6% 1.80 +0.1%

Draw 23.9% 29.9% 3.35 -12.0%

Away win 20.4% 25.0% 4.00 -11.0%

Over 2.5 54.1% 54.1% 1.85 +0.1%

Over 3.5 33.8% 32.3% 3.10 +4.8%

BTTS 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Home O1.5 55.0% 54.1% 1.85 +1.8%

Away O1.5 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleston1.8

Sacramento R.0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTON · PPG 2.71

SACRAMENTO R. · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs P(Home)=55.6%

Win probability 1X2

Charleston (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.0%

Sacramento R. (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleston face Sacramento R. in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleston a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Sacramento R. 20%, so Charleston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Charleston and 0.9 for Sacramento R. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleston are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Sacramento R.. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.2%.

Charleston vs Sacramento R. Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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