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Sporting JAX vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 15, 2026, 23:30

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pittsburgh

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+23.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.4%0-26.7%0-34.7%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.4%1-36.6%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.5%2-34.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 24.4% 4.10 +4.2%

Draw 21.2% 28.2% 3.55 -14.8%

Away win 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Over 2.5 66.7% 54.1% 1.85 +23.4%

Over 3.5 42.3% 31.3% 3.20 +35.4%

BTTS 63.4% 57.1% 1.75 +10.9%

Home O1.5 42.8% 30.3% 3.30 +41.2%

Away O1.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.4%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX1.4

Pittsburgh2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.29

PITTSBURGH · PPG 1.14

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs Home POOR (0.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 26.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -14.8%

Pittsburgh (A) 52.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Pittsburgh in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Pittsburgh 53%, so Pittsburgh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting JAX and 2.1 for Pittsburgh (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Pittsburgh. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +41.2%.

Sporting JAX vs Pittsburgh Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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