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Denver Summit W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 23:00

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.6%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.2%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 62.5% 1.60 -16.0%

Draw 24.0% 27.0% 3.70 -6.7%

Away win 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 54.5% 51.8% 1.93 +5.2%

Over 3.5 34.7% 29.9% 3.35 +16.2%

BTTS 55.6% 54.1% 1.85 +2.9%

Home O1.5 55.1% 57.8% 1.73 -4.7%

Away O1.5 32.7% 25.6% 3.90 +27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Denver Summit W1.9

Houston Dash W1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.00

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Denver Summit W (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -16.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.7%

Houston Dash W (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Denver Summit W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Denver Summit W a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Houston Dash W 24%, so Denver Summit W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Denver Summit W and 1.0 for Houston Dash W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Denver Summit W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Denver Summit W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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