Today / USA - NWSL / Seattle Reign W vs Portland T. W

Seattle Reign W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 20:00

Seattle Reign W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Portland T. W

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-112.5%0-28.6%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-16.5%2-24.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 34.5% 2.90 -10.1%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

Over 2.5 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Over 3.5 30.8% 31.3% 3.20 -1.4%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Away O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -6.6%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 12.5%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Reign W1.0

Portland T. W1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE REIGN W · PPG 1.17

PORTLAND T. W · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Reign W (H) 31.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.1%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Portland T. W (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Reign W face Portland T. W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Reign W a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Portland T. W 43%, so Portland T. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Seattle Reign W and 1.4 for Portland T. W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Reign W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.43 for Portland T. W. This match finished 2-0.

Seattle Reign W vs Portland T. W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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