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Chicago RS W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 22:30

Chicago RS W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Angel City W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-112.9%0-212.0%0-37.4%0-4+5.3%1 1-05.6%1-110.4%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.3%2 2-02.3%2-14.2%2-23.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.6%3-11.1%3-21.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

Draw 22.8% 25.3% 3.95 -6.0%

Away win 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 54.1% 56.5% 1.77 -4.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.9% 2.95 -2.1%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 26.0% 3.85 +28.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.6%

A 59% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.0%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 0–1 12.9%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chicago RS W0.8

Angel City W1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHICAGO RS W · PPG 1.29

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Chicago RS W (H) 18.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +0.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.0%

Angel City W (A) 59.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chicago RS W face Angel City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chicago RS W a 18% chance, the draw 23% and Angel City W 59%, so Angel City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Chicago RS W and 1.9 for Angel City W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chicago RS W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.40 for Angel City W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Chicago RS W vs Angel City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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