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Cremonese vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:30

Cremonese

PPG 0.80 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Torino

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-19.4%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.7%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 36.0% 2.78 +13.4%

Draw 26.7% 32.8% 3.05 -18.6%

Away win 32.4% 38.2% 2.62 -15.1%

Over 2.5 46.1% 45.5% 2.20 +1.4%

Over 3.5 24.7% 23.8% 4.20 +3.7%

BTTS 51.1% 54.1% 1.85 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.1%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–0✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cremonese1.3

Torino1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMONESE · PPG 0.80

TORINO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.80), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Cremonese (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +13.4%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -18.6%

Torino (A) 32.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Torino in Italy - Serie A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Torino 32%, so Cremonese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cremonese and 1.2 for Torino (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.00 for Torino. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Cremonese vs Torino Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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