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Recoleta vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Recoleta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

S. Wanderers

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.8%0-26.5%0-33.6%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.6%1-110.9%1-29.1%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-17.6%2-26.3%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 42.0% 2.38 -14.8%

Draw 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Away win 39.9% 35.7% 2.80 +11.7%

Over 2.5 60.9% 51.3% 1.95 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 31.8% 3.14 +17.4%

BTTS 60.0% 58.8% 1.70 +2.0%

Home O1.5 43.9% 44.1% 2.27 -0.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 39.2% 2.55 +28.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.0%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.5%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta1.4

S. Wanderers1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.50

S. WANDERERS · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -14.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

S. Wanderers (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face S. Wanderers in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 36% chance, the draw 24% and S. Wanderers 40%, so S. Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Recoleta and 1.7 for S. Wanderers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.75 for S. Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.0%.

Recoleta vs S. Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions