Today / Chile - Liga de Ascenso / Deportes Temuco vs Cobreloa

Deportes Temuco vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 19:00

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cobreloa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+21.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.0%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.7%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 43.5% 2.30 +12.2%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 26.7% 37.0% 2.70 -16.8%

Over 2.5 60.9% 50.0% 2.00 +21.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 32.9% 3.04 +13.7%

BTTS 60.6% 58.8% 1.70 +3.0%

Home O1.5 53.0% 45.2% 2.21 +17.1%

Away O1.5 37.7% 40.7% 2.46 -7.3%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco1.8

Cobreloa1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.29

COBRELOA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +12.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Cobreloa (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face Cobreloa in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Cobreloa 27%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportes Temuco and 1.3 for Cobreloa (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Cobreloa. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Deportes Temuco vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions