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U. San Felipe vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:30

U. San Felipe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

D. Iquique

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.9%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.4%1-112.6%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 36.4% 2.75 +25.7%

Draw 25.6% 34.5% 2.90 -15.5%

Away win 28.7% 41.7% 2.40 -18.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 50.0% 2.00 +8.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 30.5% 3.28 +8.9%

BTTS 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 38.8% 2.58 +18.4%

Away O1.5 36.2% 42.9% 2.33 -15.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. San Felipe1.4

D. Iquique1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

U. SAN FELIPE · PPG 1.71

D. IQUIQUE · PPG 0.29

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=45.7%

Win probability 1X2

U. San Felipe (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.7%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.5%

D. Iquique (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. San Felipe face D. Iquique in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. San Felipe a 46% chance, the draw 26% and D. Iquique 29%, so U. San Felipe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for U. San Felipe and 1.1 for D. Iquique (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. San Felipe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.29 for D. Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.7%.

U. San Felipe vs D. Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions