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Copiapo vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:30

Copiapo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puerto Montt

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.8%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.6%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 47.6% 2.10 +4.2%

Draw 26.8% 34.5% 2.90 -13.4%

Away win 23.6% 30.3% 3.30 -13.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 25.6% 3.90 +7.9%

BTTS 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Home O1.5 45.9% 43.7% 2.29 +5.1%

Away O1.5 31.0% 29.9% 3.34 +3.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.9%

H 50% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Copiapo1.4

Puerto Montt1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COPIAPO · PPG 2.00

PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.6%

Win probability 1X2

Copiapo (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -13.4%

Puerto Montt (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Copiapo face Puerto Montt in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Copiapo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Montt 24%, so Copiapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Copiapo and 1.0 for Puerto Montt (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Copiapo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Puerto Montt. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Copiapo vs Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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