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Viking vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sandefjord

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.6%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.0%1-14.9%1-21.7%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-17.6%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.8%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.4%4+-112.9%4+-24.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.8% 80.0% 1.25 -14.0%

Draw 17.6% 18.5% 5.40 -3.0%

Away win 13.7% 9.4% 10.60 +27.1%

Over 2.5 67.1% 71.4% 1.40 -6.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 50.0% 2.00 -11.0%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 76.2% 80.0% 1.25 -4.8%

Away O1.5 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 69% / xG 3.1-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 4–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking3.1

Sandefjord0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

SANDEFJORD · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (3.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 68.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -14.0%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -3.0%

Sandefjord (A) 13.7%

ODDS 10.60 · IMPLIED 9.4% EV +27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Sandefjord in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 69% chance, the draw 18% and Sandefjord 14%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Viking and 0.7 for Sandefjord (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sandefjord. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Viking vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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