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Valerenga vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Molde

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.4%0-24.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.7%1-19.9%1-27.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.7%3-15.5%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 38.5% 2.60 +13.4%

Draw 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -8.3%

Away win 34.4% 42.9% 2.33 -19.9%

Over 2.5 64.7% 72.5% 1.38 -10.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

BTTS 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Home O1.5 51.8% 56.5% 1.77 -8.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 58.8% 1.70 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.1%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga1.8

Molde1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.44

MOLDE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +13.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.3%

Molde (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Molde in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Molde 34%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Valerenga and 1.5 for Molde (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Molde. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Valerenga vs Molde Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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