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Viking vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Viking

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

UPCOMING

Aalesund

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.9%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.8%1-13.2%1-21.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.2%2-16.0%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-17.5%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-022.2%4+-118.6%4+-27.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.2% 80.0% 1.25 -4.8%

Draw 15.6% 16.7% 6.00 -3.8%

Away win 8.2% 10.8% 9.25 -14.5%

Over 2.5 76.2% 78.1% 1.28 -2.5%

Over 3.5 56.2% 58.8% 1.70 -4.5%

BTTS 59.9% 67.6% 1.48 -11.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob59.9%

H 76% / xG 3.7-0.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.9%

#2 4–0 8.4%

#3 1–1 3.2%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viking3.7

Aalesund0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKING · PPG 3.00

AALESUND · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.90 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Viking (H) 76.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.8%

Aalesund (A) 8.2%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viking face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viking a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Aalesund 8%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Viking and 0.8 for Aalesund (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viking are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Aalesund.

Viking vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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