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Molde vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 16:00

Molde

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brann

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.3%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.1%1-17.8%1-25.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.4%3-24.8%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-17.7%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 47.6% 2.10 +16.6%

Draw 21.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.4%

Away win 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Over 2.5 67.1% 64.5% 1.55 +4.0%

Over 3.5 44.5% 42.6% 2.35 +4.6%

BTTS 63.3% 69.0% 1.45 -8.2%

Home O1.5 62.9% 56.5% 1.77 +11.3%

Away O1.5 37.7% 45.5% 2.20 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde2.4

Brann1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.50

BRANN · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=55.5%

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 55.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +16.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

Brann (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face Brann in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Brann 23%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Molde and 1.3 for Brann (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Brann. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Molde vs Brann Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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