Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Start vs Rosenborg

Start vs Rosenborg Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Start

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rosenborg

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.3%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.3%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.2%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 33.9% 2.95 +43.7%

Draw 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

Away win 25.6% 45.5% 2.20 -26.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 35.7% 2.80 -11.3%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 46.0% 42.0% 2.38 +9.5%

Away O1.5 30.2% 51.3% 1.95 -41.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start1.5

Rosenborg1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 1.20

ROSENBORG · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +43.7%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.3%

Rosenborg (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Rosenborg in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Rosenborg 26%, so Start are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Start and 1.0 for Rosenborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.20 for Rosenborg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Start vs Rosenborg Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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