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Lillestrom vs KFUM Oslo Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Lillestrom

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

KFUM Oslo

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-13.2%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-17.6%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.4%3-17.2%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-17.7%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.9% 59.9% 1.67 +3.4%

Draw 20.3% 26.0% 3.85 -13.1%

Away win 17.8% 20.8% 4.80 -8.7%

Over 2.5 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Over 3.5 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

BTTS 48.5% 61.7% 1.62 -21.4%

Home O1.5 62.9% 61.7% 1.62 +1.9%

Away O1.5 21.6% 32.3% 3.10 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 62% / xG 2.4-0.7 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 3–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom2.4

KFUM Oslo0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.80

KFUM OSLO · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=61.9%

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 61.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +3.4%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -13.1%

KFUM Oslo (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face KFUM Oslo in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 62% chance, the draw 20% and KFUM Oslo 18%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lillestrom and 0.7 for KFUM Oslo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.40 for KFUM Oslo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Lillestrom vs KFUM Oslo Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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