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Kristiansund vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 14:00

Kristiansund

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sarpsborg 08

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.7%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.3%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.5%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 33.3% 3.00 +18.2%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

Away win 34.8% 46.5% 2.15 -25.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

Over 3.5 29.0% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

Away O1.5 36.2% 54.6% 1.83 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 11.1%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristiansund1.3

Sarpsborg 081.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSUND · PPG 1.40

SARPSBORG 08 · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kristiansund (H) 39.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +18.2%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.6%

Sarpsborg 08 (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristiansund face Sarpsborg 08 in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristiansund a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Sarpsborg 08 35%, so Kristiansund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kristiansund and 1.1 for Sarpsborg 08 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristiansund are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Sarpsborg 08. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.2%.

Kristiansund vs Sarpsborg 08 Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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