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BK Hacken vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

BK Hacken

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.4%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.6%1-18.1%1-24.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.4%3-24.5%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.6%4+-24.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 66.7% 1.50 -16.6%

Draw 22.2% 22.7% 4.40 -1.4%

Away win 22.2% 17.9% 5.60 +14.6%

Over 2.5 62.3% 67.6% 1.48 -7.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

BTTS 60.1% 65.4% 1.53 -8.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 70.4% 1.42 -6.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.1%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BK Hacken2.3

Vasteras SK FK1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BK HACKEN · PPG 1.78

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BK Hacken (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.6%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.4%

Vasteras SK FK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

BK Hacken face Vasteras SK FK in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BK Hacken a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Vasteras SK FK 22%, so BK Hacken are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for BK Hacken and 1.2 for Vasteras SK FK (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BK Hacken are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.44 for Vasteras SK FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 1-3.

BK Hacken vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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