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Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 18 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:00

Malmo FF

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Djurgardens IF

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.4%0-24.4%0-32.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.0%1-28.0%1-35.3%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.4%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.0%4+-23.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 38.2% 2.62 -7.0%

Draw 22.1% 29.4% 3.40 -14.9%

Away win 42.4% 41.7% 2.40 +1.8%

Over 2.5 68.2% 63.7% 1.57 +7.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 42.0% 2.38 +7.1%

BTTS 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Home O1.5 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Away O1.5 56.9% 52.4% 1.91 +8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF1.8

Djurgardens IF2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.12

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 1.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -7.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.9%

Djurgardens IF (A) 42.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face Djurgardens IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Djurgardens IF 42%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Malmo FF and 2.0 for Djurgardens IF (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.86 for Djurgardens IF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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