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IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Degerfors IF

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.1%1-110.8%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.3%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Draw 24.6% 25.6% 3.90 -2.4%

Away win 21.9% 16.7% 6.00 +18.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 49.2% 54.6% 1.83 -10.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 60.6% 1.65 -19.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.0% 4.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.1%

#2 2–0✓ 12.9%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Elfsborg1.7

Degerfors IF0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.67

DEGERFORS IF · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IF Elfsborg (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.4%

Degerfors IF (A) 21.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Elfsborg face Degerfors IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Elfsborg a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Degerfors IF 22%, so IF Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for IF Elfsborg and 0.7 for Degerfors IF (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.89 for Degerfors IF. This match finished 2-0.

IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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