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Halmstad vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:30

Halmstad

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kalmar FF

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-112.8%0-28.1%0-33.4%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.3%2-16.7%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 30.3% 3.30 +17.2%

Draw 27.1% 28.6% 3.50 -3.1%

Away win 37.4% 48.8% 2.05 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.6% 1.83 -7.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

BTTS 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 51.3% 1.95 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 37% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0✓ 10.3%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Halmstad1.0

Kalmar FF1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HALMSTAD · PPG 0.56

KALMAR FF · PPG 0.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Halmstad (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.2%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.1%

Kalmar FF (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Halmstad face Kalmar FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Halmstad a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Kalmar FF 37%, so Kalmar FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Halmstad and 1.3 for Kalmar FF (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Halmstad are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.22 for Kalmar FF. This match finished 1-0.

Halmstad vs Kalmar FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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