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Sirius vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Sirius

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Malmo FF

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.2%1-16.1%1-24.4%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.3%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.5%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-19.9%4+-27.1%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 54.1% 1.85 +4.0%

Draw 19.4% 25.6% 3.90 -14.6%

Away win 24.4% 27.4% 3.65 -6.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 49.4% 45.5% 2.20 +8.7%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 62.5% 1.60 +6.1%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.5% 2.30 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 56% / xG 2.7-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 6.1%

#3 3–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 1–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sirius2.7

Malmo FF1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SIRIUS · PPG 2.22

MALMO FF · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sirius (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +4.0%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -14.6%

Malmo FF (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sirius face Malmo FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sirius a 56% chance, the draw 19% and Malmo FF 24%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Sirius and 1.4 for Malmo FF (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sirius are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.89 for Malmo FF. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Sirius vs Malmo FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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