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IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

IFK Goteborg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.2%0-22.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.1%1-19.0%1-25.8%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.8%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Draw 22.1% 23.1% 4.33 -2.6%

Away win 25.2% 20.0% 5.00 +15.6%

Over 2.5 64.4% 65.4% 1.53 -1.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 42.6% 2.35 +1.5%

BTTS 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Home O1.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Goteborg2.1

Orgryte IS1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 1.33

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IFK Goteborg (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -17.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.6%

Orgryte IS (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Goteborg face Orgryte IS in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Goteborg a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Orgryte IS 25%, so IFK Goteborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for IFK Goteborg and 1.3 for Orgryte IS (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Orgryte IS. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.6%. This match finished 1-0.

IFK Goteborg vs Orgryte IS Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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