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AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hammarby FF

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.8%0-29.2%0-35.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.5%2-16.0%2-25.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.1%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 21.1% 4.75 +8.4%

Draw 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

Away win 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.6% 2.35 -13.8%

BTTS 55.0% 64.5% 1.55 -14.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 34.7% 2.88 -11.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.0%

A 53% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AIK Stockholm1.1

Hammarby FF1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.29

HAMMARBY FF · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.66 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

AIK Stockholm (H) 24.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.4%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.3%

Hammarby FF (A) 52.7%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AIK Stockholm face Hammarby FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AIK Stockholm a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Hammarby FF 53%, so Hammarby FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for AIK Stockholm and 1.7 for Hammarby FF (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.38 for Hammarby FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-2.

AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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