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Socuellamos vs Fuenlabrada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Socuellamos

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Fuenlabrada

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-110.0%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.7%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 32.3% 3.10 +26.5%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 31.7% 48.8% 2.05 -35.0%

Over 2.5 43.1% 52.6% 1.90 -18.1%

Over 3.5 22.2% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Socuellamos1.3

Fuenlabrada1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOCUELLAMOS · PPG 1.13

FUENLABRADA · PPG 0.87

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Socuellamos (H) 40.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +26.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Fuenlabrada (A) 31.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Socuellamos face Fuenlabrada in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Socuellamos a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Fuenlabrada 32%, so Socuellamos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Socuellamos and 1.1 for Fuenlabrada (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Socuellamos are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.87 for Fuenlabrada. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Socuellamos vs Fuenlabrada Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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