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Getafe B vs Intercity Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Getafe B

PPG 2.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Intercity

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.6%1-16.7%1-22.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.8%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-19.8%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.3% 57.1% 1.75 +10.8%

Draw 21.6% 29.4% 3.40 -26.6%

Away win 15.2% 25.6% 3.90 -40.7%

Over 2.5 60.5% 52.6% 1.90 +14.9%

Over 3.5 44.6% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 63% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe B2.6

Intercity0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE B · PPG 2.38

INTERCITY · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=63.3%

Win probability 1X2

Getafe B (H) 63.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +10.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -26.6%

Intercity (A) 15.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe B face Intercity in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe B a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Intercity 15%, so Getafe B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Getafe B and 0.8 for Intercity (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe B are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.81 for Intercity. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Getafe B vs Intercity Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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