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Las Palmas B vs Orihuela Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Las Palmas B

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Orihuela

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 52.4% 1.91 -18.8%

Draw 29.8% 29.9% 3.35 -0.2%

Away win 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 27.2% — — —

BTTS 57.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.2%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Palmas B1.5

Orihuela1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS PALMAS B · PPG 1.50

ORIHUELA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Las Palmas B (H) 42.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.2%

Orihuela (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Palmas B face Orihuela in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Palmas B a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Orihuela 28%, so Las Palmas B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Las Palmas B and 1.1 for Orihuela (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Palmas B are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Orihuela. This match finished 2-1.

Las Palmas B vs Orihuela Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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