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Quintanar vs RSD Alcala Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

Quintanar

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

RSD Alcala

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.8%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.3%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Draw 32.7% 33.9% 2.95 -3.5%

Away win 29.5% 37.0% 2.70 -20.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 46.5% 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 21.5% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

D 33% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quintanar1.3

RSD Alcala1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

QUINTANAR · PPG 1.38

RSD ALCALA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Quintanar (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -7.4%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -3.5%

RSD Alcala (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quintanar face RSD Alcala in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quintanar a 38% chance, the draw 33% and RSD Alcala 30%, so Quintanar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Quintanar and 1.1 for RSD Alcala (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quintanar are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for RSD Alcala. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Quintanar vs RSD Alcala Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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