Quintanar vs RSD Alcala Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 33 Estadio San Marcos· Quintanar del Rey Sunday, April 26, 2026 10:00

Quintanar PPG 1.38

0-0 HIT CS2

RSD Alcala PPG 0.88

Over2.5· +7.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Quintanar face RSD Alcala in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quintanar a 38% chance, the draw 33% and RSD Alcala 30%, so Quintanar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Quintanar and 1.1 for RSD Alcala (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quintanar are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for RSD Alcala. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.8%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -7.4%

Draw 32.7%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -3.5%

Away 29.5%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -20.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.0% Odds: 2.15 +7.5%

Over 3.5 21.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Quintanar

1.32

RSD Alcala

1.05

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+7.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -32.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.88)