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HamKam vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 18, 2026, 12:00

HamKam

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tromso

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.0%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.0%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 29.9% 3.35 +59.1%

Draw 25.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.1%

Away win 27.4% 46.5% 2.15 -24.6%

Over 2.5 54.1% 47.6% 2.10 +13.6%

Over 3.5 33.6% 26.3% 3.80 +27.7%

BTTS 55.5% 54.6% 1.83 +1.6%

Home O1.5 53.0% 33.3% 3.00 +59.0%

Away O1.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HamKam1.7

Tromso1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMKAM · PPG 2.50

TROMSO · PPG 1.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=47.5%

Win probability 1X2

HamKam (H) 47.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +59.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.1%

Tromso (A) 27.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

HamKam face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HamKam a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Tromso 27%, so HamKam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for HamKam and 1.2 for Tromso (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HamKam are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.60 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +69.4%. This match finished 1-4.

HamKam vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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