Today / China - Super League / SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:35

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Qingdao Jonoon

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.8%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.2%1-23.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-19.6%4+-24.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.6% 76.9% 1.30 -17.3%

Draw 19.1% 20.0% 5.00 -2.7%

Away win 17.3% 13.3% 7.50 +17.8%

Over 2.5 65.0% 71.4% 1.40 -9.0%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.4% 1.91 -16.9%

BTTS 60.5% 59.9% 1.67 +1.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Away O1.5 32.4% 26.7% 3.75 +21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.5%

H 64% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.3%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SHANGHAI SIPG2.6

Qingdao Jonoon1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.45

QINGDAO JONOON · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 1.45 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

SHANGHAI SIPG (H) 63.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -17.3%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -2.7%

Qingdao Jonoon (A) 17.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SHANGHAI SIPG face Qingdao Jonoon in China - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Qingdao Jonoon 17%, so SHANGHAI SIPG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.0 for Qingdao Jonoon (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.33 for Qingdao Jonoon. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 2-1.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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