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Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:35

Chengdu Better City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shenyang Urban

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.7%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.5%1-17.0%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-19.2%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.0%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-19.9%4+-24.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.7% 76.9% 1.30 -17.2%

Draw 15.8% 17.9% 5.60 -6.9%

Away win 20.6% 14.7% 6.80 +24.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 45.0% 54.1% 1.85 -16.8%

BTTS 60.2% 64.5% 1.55 -6.7%

Home O1.5 65.8% 80.0% 1.25 -17.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 30.8% 3.25 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob60.2%

H 64% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 3–0 8.5%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu Better City2.6

Shenyang Urban0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU BETTER CITY · PPG 2.00

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu Better City (H) 63.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -17.2%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -6.9%

Shenyang Urban (A) 20.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu Better City face Shenyang Urban in China - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu Better City a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Shenyang Urban 21%, so Chengdu Better City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Chengdu Better City and 0.9 for Shenyang Urban (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Shenyang Urban. This match finished 2-1.

Chengdu Better City vs Shenyang Urban Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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